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and human rights - based on analysis of major events of 2009 to identify Sri Lanka's major trends in 2010.

Political

The remarkable year of 2009 ended in a sour note when the President allowed political expediency to take over and advanced the presidential poll by two years to January 26, 2010. When one of the chief architects of military victory General Sarath Fonseka challenged the president’s bid for a second term in office, the polity and people have been polarized. The nation is divided vertically when unity was the key to reap the dividends of peace.

Thus we find the nation using irreplaceable resource of human Endeavour on a political exercise instead of addressing vital national issues that have a strategic connotation on Sri Lanka’s future. The issues include kick starting the national economy to pay off war debts, upgrading human resources stunted during the war years, redress of historical grievances of minorities and rectifying human rights and humanitarian aberrations.

The President is leading the race in the run up to the elections. However, General Fonseka, the common opposition candidate, is improving his competitiveness. He has revamped his campaign making a foray into Jaffna peninsula, a no-go area for any erstwhile army commander without escort for the last 25 years. Apparently Fonseka is determined to improve his trust quotient among Tamils which suspects his new found sympathy for Tamils plight. However, unless the former political ally of the LTTE – The Tamil National Alliance (TNA) –makes up its mind to support him he is unlikely to get no large scale Tamil support. With the government in power in a position to indirectly trade off favours, the TNA’s much delayed decision may not be wholehearted even in the unlikely event of favouring Fonseka.

Compared to the General, President Rajapaksa is better placed to win Tamil votes despite historical Tamil tilt towards the rival United National Party (UNP). Thus it would be reasonable to expect the President to win the mandate for a second term.

If that happens we can expect him to become even more assertive in the run up to the parliamentary poll. His aim would be to strengthen his coalition numbers in parliament as no single party by itself has a chance to get an absolute majority in the proportional representation system.

So the year 2010 will probably see the deferring of contentious questions like abolition of executive presidency. Even with all good intentions, in the coming year we can expect no dramatic improvement in other hardy perennials – human rights, Tamil autonomy, and enforcement of 13th and 17th amendments to the constitution. At best expect there would probably be cosmetic changes through a patchwork quilt of measures to buy time and space rather than paradigm changes because politically that would be more convenient.

International affairs

Sri Lanka is likely to adopt a more conciliatory profile with nations which matter because it would need their support to prop up its war ravaged economy, handle embarrassing human rights and humanitarian issues coming up internationally, and take maximum advantage of the strategic power play in the Indian Ocean and South Asian regions.

Sri Lanka's relations with the U.S. are likely to undergo a face lift with. The Obama administration already indicating its mood to forget and forgive in reshaping its Sri Lanka policy. Of course, Sri Lanka has to thank the increasing footprint of China in the country for change in the U.S. attitudes. Otherwise the U.S. would not have suddenly discovered it should have "an integrated strategy that leverages political, economic, and security tools for more effective long-term reforms" in Sri Lanka.

Of course 2010 will be the year of sizeable increase in the Chinese profile beyond its projects in Sri Lanka. We can expect the markets to open up for a flood of Chinese goods giving a run for the money to Indian and local brands. Towards the year end probably we would see the first of the Chinese tourists in large number.

Indian response to the Chinese moves could be slow in its own ponderous pace. The focus would be on developmental activity in the Tamil areas and taking up other projects long in incubation. In 2010 Indian concerns with Af-Pak region are likely to occupy greater space in its foreign policy preoccupations due to the likely downsizing of the U.S. profile in the region as prelude to progressive military disengagement in that region. Despite this, with the Tamil Nadu legislative elections due in another year the Tamil issue could be brought back to the top of the open agenda from backroom parleys. So Sri Lanka will be required to handle this isue whether it likes it or not.

The EU despite periodic fulminations about extending the GSP+ tariff concessions may well end up striking a compromise. The EU rarely takes abrupt or precipitate action in handling such situations. Usually it provides enough space for the other nation to evolve a workable solution. Moreover, it has both strategic and commercial interests in the region and cannot exclude itself in the power game in the region.

Britain's Sri Lanka relations had a forgettable year in 2009. They are unlikely to fare any better in 2010 due to Britain's own political compulsions in responding to ethnic Tamil lobbying and human rights pressures outweighing other considerations.